اداء المحفظة الدولية الخطرة المثلى بظل الازمة المالية دراسة تحليلية لعينة من اسواق الاسهم الدولية
الكلمات المفتاحية:
الازمة المالية، المحفظة الدولية الخطرةالملخص
ان العولمة الاقتصادية لها اثار ايجابية وسلبية, فالإيجابية تكمن في اتساع قاعدة الفرص الاستثمارية المتاحة امام المستثمر المحلي , اما السلبية فتأتي من ان الاسواق الدولية اصبحت اكثر تكاملا , وهذا ربما يقلل من جدوى اداء المحافظ المنوعة دولياً.
ان الجدلية الفكرية تكمن في التساؤل الاساسي فيما اذا كان اداء المحافظ الدولية تأثر بالأزمة المالية مقارنة بما في قبلها وما بعدها. وفي الواقع ان هذه المشكلة المعرفية كانت ومازالت تشكل جدلاً بالغ الاهمية وعلى المستويين الاكاديمي والتطبيقي . تسعى الدراسة الى بناء المحفظة الدولية الخطرة المثلى وبيان كيفية بناءها واختلاف اوزانها عن المحفظة المحلية المثلى , وبيان مدى تأثر ادائها اثناء الازمة المالية مقارنة بما قبلها وما بعدها . والكشف فيما اذا كان التنويع الدولي للمحفظة الاستثمارية الخطرة المثلى في عصر العولمة يعد أداة مفيدة تسمح لبناء محفظة استثمارية مثلى توفر افضل مبادلة بين المخاطرة والعائد .
أُجرت الدراسة تحليلاٌ مفصلاٌ لأداء المحفظة الدولية الخطرة المثلى بظل الازمة المالية في ضوء البيانات التي تم الحصول عليها لعينة الدراسة المتمثلة بمؤشرات اسواق الاسهم العراقية والدولية , فالأخيرة تم اختيارها على وفق تصنيف مؤسسة فوتسي (FTSE) لعينة مكونة من (53) مؤشر الاسهم سوق دولي , وتم ادخال سوق العراق للأوراق المالية في العينة كون ان الدراسة تهتم بتقييم اداء المحفظة المنوعة دولياً من منظور المستثمر المحلي العراقي. وشملت مدة الدراسة (771) يوم تداول للعينة المدروسة ككل, فبدأت في يوم (1392006) ولغاية يوم (26/05/2011) . اذ ولغرض معرفة تأثر اداء التنويع الدولي خلال الازمة مقارنة بما قبلها , فقد تم تقسيم مدة المعاينة الى ثلاث مدد وبالتساوي وان لكل مدة (257) يوما. وباستخدام العديد من الاساليب المالية والاحصائية فقد خلصت الدراسة الى عدد من الاستنتاجات ومن اهمها :
يختلف اداء المحفظة الخطرة المثلى الدولية اثناء الازمة المالية مقارنة بما قبلها وما بعدها . وقد اظهرت النتائج التحليلية تفوق المحفظة المثلى الدولية على المحفظة المحلية ولجميع المدد . فضلا عن ذلك فأن اداء المحفظة الدولية متباين فأسفرت النتائج التحليلية عن تحسن اداء المحفظة خلال المدة اللاحقة للازمة بالمقارنة مع نظائرها في المدتين المزامنة والسابقة للازمة ما يؤكد على ان اداء المحفظة الدولية الخطرة المثلى يتغير بتأثير الازمة مقارنة بما قبلها وبعدها .
وخرجت الدراسة بعدد من التوصيات ولعل من اهمها : ينبغي على المستثمر العراقي ان ينتقل من البيئة المحلية الى البيئة الدولية للاستثمار المالي لما يترتب عليه جدوى اكبر منعكسة بمبادلة اكثر كفاءة بين المخاطر والعائد . وعدم التعجل في تصفية استثماراته مع استهلال الازمة, اذ ان الاسواق تتأثر بالأزمة بشكل كبير في بدايتها لكن سرعان ما تمتص الاسواق للازمة وتستوعب اثارها وتعود لترتد وتتعافى. وكما اظهرت النتائج في اداء المحفظة الدولية بعد الازمة كان افضل بكثير مما في الازمة بل وحتى ماقبلها .
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